Odds

The odds are the central figure in any sports bet. They express how likely the bookmaker considers a particular outcome. The lower the odds, the more likely the result is considered. High odds stand for an unlikely outcome and thus for a higher possible payout.

The odds have two jobs. First, they are a multiplier for your stake. Stake times odds gives the possible payout. Second, every set of odds contains a probability. You can work out this so-called implied probability yourself.

The formula is simple. You divide the number 1 by the decimal odds.

implied probability = 1 / decimal odds

At odds of 5.50, that is 1 divided by 5.50, i.e. around 18.18 percent. The bookmaker therefore considers this outcome rather unlikely. It works the same way in reverse. If you have a probability, you calculate the matching fair odds like this:

fair odds = 100 / probability in percent

If you estimate a chance at 60 percent, that gives 100 divided by 60, i.e. fair odds of around 1.67. With these two formulas, you can translate any odds into a probability and vice versa.

At the betting shop on site, you'll find the odds on the screen, at the terminal or on the betting slip. They change continuously, because the bookmaker's assessment also changes.

Your possible payout results from stake times odds. A short example with a 10-euro stake:

• Stake: 10 euros
• Odds: 1.85
• Possible payout: 18.50 euros, i.e. 10 times 1.85
• Pure winnings: 8.50 euros, because your stake is already included

In the decimal odds, your stake is always included. So you see directly what comes back if it comes in. How the odds translate into probability is shown by the following table:

You can spot the pattern. Low odds stand for a high probability and a smaller payout. High odds stand for a low probability and a higher possible payout. With this table in mind, you can quickly classify any odds without lengthy calculation.

The figure you see can be presented a few different ways. The value behind it stays the same, only the notation changes:

• Decimal odds: a number like 1.85, the standard in Germany and the easiest to read
• Fractional odds: a notation like 17/20, common above all in the United Kingdom
• American odds: a value like plus 150 or minus 200, usual in the USA

In addition, a distinction is made by timing. Odds before kick-off are called pre-match odds. Odds during a match in progress are called live odds and can change from second to second. With live odds, the provider reacts directly to what is happening on the pitch, for example to a goal or a red card.

It's also important to understand why odds move at all. The bookmaker adjusts them as soon as new information is available. An injury, a surprising line-up, the weather or the betting behaviour of many users can make odds rise or fall. That's why the same bet can have different odds tomorrow than today. Anyone who bets early sometimes secures higher odds, but takes the risk that the situation still changes.

The odds are a useful tool, but they also have limits. A sober look helps you classify them correctly:

• Advantage: you see immediately how much a tip can bring in
• Advantage: you can recalculate and compare the probability yourself
• Advantage: you can compare the odds of different outcomes directly
• Advantage: decimal odds are easy to understand and need no conversion
• Disadvantage: every set of odds contains a surcharge from the provider, the so-called margin
• Disadvantage: low odds don't mean that the tip will surely come in
• Disadvantage: odds change, high odds can disappear by kick-off

The odds show an assessment, not a promise. Even a clear favourite can lose, and an underdog can win. The odds only say how the provider sees the situation, not how the match turns out.

When dealing with odds, the same mistakes in thinking happen again and again. These points help you stay sober:

• High odds are not a gift: they usually stand for a low probability
• Mind the timing: your bet uses the odds at the moment you place it
• Check the implied probability: recalculate whether the odds fit your own assessment
• Stick to your budget: high odds are no reason to stake more than planned
• Consider the margin: every set of odds contains a surcharge that lowers your payout somewhat

A widespread error is to see high odds as a sure bargain. In reality, they are usually high because the outcome is unlikely. It is just as wrong to trust low odds blindly. Even a clear favourite loses sometimes. Use the odds as a tool to estimate probability and possible payout, not as a promise. Sports betting is permitted from the age of 18 (21 in Bremen). Only stake money whose loss you can cope with, and treat every set of odds as an assessment, not as a certainty. How you can read and understand betting odds is explored in more depth in the guide with further examples.