Value bet

With a value bet, you believe an outcome is more likely than the odds suggest. So you weigh your own estimate of the probability against the bookmaker's odds. When your estimated probability is higher than the odds imply, you have value.

There are two simple ways to check for value. The first is multiplication: take the odds times your own probability. If the result is above 1, the bet holds value.

value = odds x own probability

An example: odds of 2.00 times a chance of 0.60 give 1.20. That is above 1, so roughly 20 percent value. The second way is the fair odds. If you put the chance at 75 percent, the fair odds are 100 divided by 75, around 1.33. If the provider offers 1.45, those odds beat your fair odds of 1.33, and you have found value.

One thing to be clear about: a value bet is not a sure win. It only describes a favourable balance between probability and odds. Whether the bet comes in stays open. Even across many bets, the result can be negative.

The guide Understanding betting odds covers this in detail.

You put the chance of a win at 60 percent. The fair odds would then be 100 divided by 60, around 1.67. But if the bookmaker offers 2.00, the bet holds value from your point of view. Here is the calculation step by step.

You can also estimate the expected value. It shows what a bet returns on average if you were to play it very often.

expected value = (probability x net winnings) - (counter-probability x stake)

At a 10-euro stake, odds of 2.00 and a 60 percent chance, that is 0.60 times 10 euros in net winnings minus 0.40 times the 10-euro stake, so plus 2 euros on average. A positive expected value is a pure calculation. It holds only if your estimated probability is right, and it says nothing about the single match, where there is only a win or a loss. The hard part is estimating the probability honestly and on solid ground. Even a small misjudgement can turn a supposed plus into a minus.

To check, you need your own well-founded estimate and a clear comparison with the odds. The first step is always your own probability, because the provider's odds on their own reveal no value. These steps help.

• Estimate your own probability: base it on form, statistics and facts you can verify
• Work out the fair odds: 100 divided by your probability in percent
• Compare odds: if the odds on offer beat your fair odds, take a closer look
• Allow for the margin: the provider's mark-up quickly eats up small value

Without facts you can verify, a supposed value bet is often just wishful thinking. Many bettors overrate their favourite team's chances and see value where there is none. So an honest look at the figures matters more than the hope for a particular outcome. It helps to write down your own estimate before you look at the provider's odds. That way the given odds do not sway you, and you can check more honestly whether there is value.

The idea of the value bet has clear limits. Know both sides before you bet on it.

• Advantage: you do not bet blindly but to a method
• Advantage: you train your eye for odds and probabilities
• Advantage: you decide by a fixed calculation rather than on impulse
• Disadvantage: your probability is only an estimate and can be wrong
• Disadvantage: individual value bets can still lose
• Disadvantage: value is a long-term idea, not a sure single win
• Disadvantage: the search for value costs time and research

Value is a calculated estimate, not a guarantee for the next bet. Its biggest weak point is your own judgement. If your probabilities are wrong, the supposed value is just an illusion. The whole method stands or falls with that estimate.

The value bet invites a few typical mistakes. These points keep you from kidding yourself.

• Estimate honestly: do not talk yourself into too high a probability just because you hope for a win
• No sure win: even a genuine value bet can lose
• Budget discipline: stake only a small, fixed part of your budget per bet
• Do not chase: do not try to win back losses with bigger stakes
• Expect losses: even across many bets the balance can be negative

Even with careful estimates, there are spells with many losses. Anyone who cannot ride that out, or who does not have their budget under control, soon comes under pressure. Sports betting is permitted from the age of 18 (21 in Bremen). Stake only money you can afford to lose, and treat value as a method, not a promise.